Climate scientists struggle to explain warming slowdown
2013-04-17 0:00

By Alister Doyle | Reuters



Scientists are struggling to explain a slowdown in climate change that has exposed gaps in their understanding and defies a rise in global greenhouse gas emissions.

Often focused on century-long trends, most climate models failed to predict that the temperature rise would slow, starting around 2000. Scientists are now intent on figuring out the causes and determining whether the respite will be brief or a more lasting phenomenon.

Getting this right is essential for the short and long-term planning of governments and businesses ranging from energy to construction, from agriculture to insurance. Many scientists say they expect a revival of warming in coming years.

Theories for the pause include that deep oceans have taken up more heat with the result that the surface is cooler than expected, that industrial pollution in Asia or clouds are blocking the sun, or that greenhouse gases trap less heat than previously believed.

The change may be a result of an observed decline in heat-trapping water vapor in the high atmosphere, for unknown reasons. It could be a combination of factors or some as yet unknown natural variations, scientists say.

Weak economic growth and the pause in warming is undermining governments’ willingness to make a rapid billion-dollar shift from fossil fuels. Almost 200 governments have agreed to work out a plan by the end of 2015 to combat global warming.

"The climate system is not quite so simple as people thought," said Bjorn Lomborg, a Danish statistician and author of "The Skeptical Environmentalist" who estimates that moderate warming will be beneficial for crop growth and human health.

Some experts say their trust in climate science has declined because of the many uncertainties. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had to correct a 2007 report that exaggerated the pace of melt of the Himalayan glaciers and wrongly said they could all vanish by 2035.

"My own confidence in the data has gone down in the past five years," said Richard Tol, an expert in climate change and professor of economics at the University of Sussex in England.

Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius first showed in the 1890s how man-made carbon dioxide, from coal for instance, traps heat in the atmosphere. Many of the exact effects are still unknown.

Greenhouse gas emissions have hit repeated record highs with annual growth of about 3 percent in most of the decade to 2010, partly powered by rises in China and India. World emissions were 75 percent higher in 2010 than in 1970, UN data show.

UN PANEL SEEKS EXPLANATION

A rapid rise in global temperatures in the 1980s and 1990s - when clean air laws in developed nations cut pollution and made sunshine stronger at the earth’s surface - made for a compelling argument that human emissions were to blame.

The IPCC will seek to explain the current pause in a report to be released in three parts from late 2013 as the main scientific roadmap for governments in shifting from fossil fuels towards renewable energies such as solar or wind power, the panel’s chairman Rajendra Pachauri said.

According to Pachauri, temperature records since 1850 "show there are fluctuations. They are 10, 15 years in duration. But the trend is unmistakable."

The IPCC has consistently said that fluctuations in the weather, perhaps caused by variations in sunspots or a La Nina cooling of the Pacific, can mask any warming trend and the panel has never predicted a year-by-year rise in temperatures.

Experts say short-term climate forecasts are vital to help governments, insurers and energy companies to plan.

Governments will find little point in reinforcing road bridges over rivers, for instance, if a prediction of more floods by 2100 doesn’t apply to the 2020s.

[...]

Read the full article at: reuters.com






Related Articles
CO2 myth busted: Why we need MORE carbon dioxide to grow food and forests
Caviar Scoffing, CO2 Belching, Prostitute Molesting Climate Crooks Convene For The Mass Raping
Al Gore Admits CO2 Does Not Cause Majority Of Global Warming
Stop the CO2 scare, before it’s too late
Carbon Dioxide Levels Continue To Rise, But Global Temperatures Are Not Following Suit
"Man-made global-warming hypothesis" is dead in the water - Godfrey Bloom MEP
Climate Paradox: Longer Antarctic Melt Season May Mean Less Global Warming?
"Global warming" stopped 16 years ago, reveals quietly released Met Office report
Geo-Engineering: Dumping iron in the ocean could slow global warming, claim scientists
Prediction: Global Warming Will Cause Everything!
Piers Corbyn: Delusion & Fraud: Global warming nonsense lobby to collapse
Climategate 2.0: Fresh trove of embarrassing emails
Climategate U-turn as scientist at centre of row admits: There has been no global warming since 1995
climategate.com


Latest News from our Front Page

Black Lives Matter Radio Host Calls for Killing Whites and Police
2015-09-03 1:48
“It’s open season on killing whites and police officers." A blogtalkradio program associated with the Black Lives Matter movement spewed racist hate and called for a race war Monday, reports Breitbart. The YouTube video of the audio recording has since been removed as a violation of YouTube's policy prohibiting hate speech, but Breitbart has video (below) of the host "King Noble" making the comments, taken from ...
Irish will be an ethnic minority in Ireland by 2050
2015-09-02 22:32
The former President of Dublin City University says that Ireland’s natives will be a minority in the country by the middle of this century... Professor Ferdinand von Prondzynski was referring to unpublished and unidentified United Kingdom based research. Speaking at the conferring ceremony at DCU on Tuesday he said that the Irish in Ireland will be a minority by 2050 while ...
Immigrant Crisis Is the Final Nail in the EU Coffin
2015-09-02 21:23
One of the biggest flaws with the EU, was the idea that they could house dozens of cultures with distinct histories and languages, all under one roof, and expect them to thrive. You can’t hold 28 nations together under one union, when all of these countries have wildly different interests, expectations, and priorities. Every time the EU faces a problem, ...
Three-year-old ultra-Orthodox Jewish children told 'the non-Jews' are 'evil' in worksheet produced by London school
2015-09-02 19:43
Documents seen by The Independent show children are taught about the horrors of the Holocaust when they are still in kindergarten at the Beis Rochel boys’ school in north London. A whistle-blower, who wished to remain anonymous, has shown The Independent a worksheet given to boys aged three and four at the school. In it, children were asked to complete questions ...
The Unsafe Child: Less Outdoor Play is Causing More Harm than Good
2015-09-02 0:39
The third grade classroom that was visiting our nature center for the day consisted of mostly boys–rowdy, loud and rambunctious boys. As we started out into the woods, the children spoke loudly to each other in anticipation of what was to come. After playing a quick game and explaining the ground rules, it was time for free play. As soon ...
More News »