By Mark Steyn | OrthodoxyToday.org
Our lesson for today comes from the Gospel according to Luke. No, no, not the manger, the shepherds, the wise men, any of that stuff, but the other birth: "But the angel said unto him, Fear not, Zacharias: for thy prayer is heard; and thy wife Elisabeth shall bear thee a son, and thou shalt call his name John."
That bit of the Christmas story doesnít get a lot of attention, but itís in there Ė Luke 1:13, part of what heíd have called the back story, if heíd been a Hollywood screenwriter rather than a physician. Of the four gospels, only two bother with the tale of Christís birth, and only Luke begins with the tale of two pregnancies. Zacharias is surprised by his impending paternity Ė "for I am an old man and my wife well stricken in years." Nonetheless, an aged, barren woman conceives and, in the sixth month of Elisabethís pregnancy, the angel visits her cousin Mary and tells her that she, too, will conceive. If you read Luke, the virgin birth seems a logical extension of the earlier miracle Ė the pregnancy of an elderly lady. The physician-author had no difficulty accepting both. For Matthew, Jesusí birth is the miracle; Luke leaves you with the impression that all birth Ė all life Ė is to a degree miraculous and God-given.
We now live in Elisabethís world Ė not just because technology has caught up with the deity and enabled women in their fifties and sixties to become mothers, but in a more basic sense. The problem with the advanced West is not that itís broke but that itís old and barren. Which explains why itís broke. Take Greece, which has now become the most convenient shorthand for sovereign insolvency Ė "Americaís heading for the same fate as Greece if we donít change course," etc. So Greece has a spending problem, a revenue problem, something along those lines, right? At a superficial level, yes. But the underlying issue is more primal: It has one of the lowest fertility rates on the planet. In Greece, 100 grandparents have 42 grandchildren Ė i.e., the family tree is upside down. In a social democratic state where workers in "hazardous" professions (such as, er, hairdressing) retire at 50, there arenít enough young people around to pay for your three-decade retirement. And there are unlikely ever to be again.
Look at it another way: Banks are a mechanism by which old people with capital lend to young people with energy and ideas. The Western world has now inverted the concept. If 100 geezers run up a bazillion dollarsí worth of debt, is it likely that 42 youngsters will ever be able to pay it off? As Angela Merkel pointed out in 2009, for Germany an Obama-sized stimulus was out of the question simply because its foreign creditors know there are not enough young Germans around ever to repay it. The Continentís economic "powerhouse" has the highest proportion of childless women in Europe: one in three fršulein have checked out of the motherhood business entirely. "Germanyís working-age population is likely to decrease 30 percent over the next few decades," says Steffen KrŲhnert of the Berlin Institute for Population Development. "Rural areas will see a massive population decline, and some villages will simply disappear."
If the problem with socialism is, as Mrs. Thatcher says, that eventually you run out of other peopleís money, much of the West has advanced to the next stage: itís run out of other people, period. Greece is a land of ever-fewer customers and fewer workers but ever more retirees and more government. How do you grow your economy in an ever-shrinking market? The developed world, like Elisabeth, is barren.
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